Geographic Priorities
Tiers are based on Kim's two-way primary share (Kim vs. Allen only, excluding Korsgaden) — the most direct signal of where she is competitive heading into November. Larger counties carry more weight. The Opportunity Score combines county size with two-way proximity to 55%, identifying where marginal investment yields the most votes.
Kim two-way primary share by county (Kim vs. Allen) — 50% line = parity
| County ↕ | Tier ↕ | Kim 2-way % ↓ | Kim−Allen (primary) ↕ | IC Votes ↕ | Opp. Score ↕ | Dem Reg % ↕ | NPP Reg % ↕ |
|---|
Demographic Targets
Based on Kim's June primary results regressed against county party registration, Democratic registration predicts ~— of the variance in Kim's two-way share. NPP concentration predicts ~—. This means the highest-value contacts are Dem-registered voters who didn't vote IC in June (Group C Dem — easy activation) and NPP voters in competitive counties (persuasion). The segments below prioritize those groups for each contact program.
Contact Program Targeting
Opportunity Pool by Party — Top Priority Counties
Group C (primary undervoters) split by estimated party registration. These are the voters who showed up in June but didn't cast an IC vote — highest-confidence activation targets if contacted.
| County ↕ | Tier ↕ | C-Dem ↓ | C-NPP ↕ | C-Rep ↕ | C Total ↕ | B-Dem est. ↕ | B-NPP est. ↕ | Kim 2-way% ↕ |
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Field Partner Campaigns
The only partners worth coordinating lit drops and field outreach with are campaigns running real field programs — meaning they're in competitive races that require serious voter contact investment. Of Kim's endorsers, five local/county-level officials are on the November 3, 2026 general election ballot in genuinely competitive races. All ballot status verified via Ballotpedia (June 2026). Two additional statewide endorsers run in all counties. Partners marked with a field program flag will have paid staff, volunteer infrastructure, and walk lists that can coordinate with Kim's lit drop program.
Statewide Partners (full overlap with Kim's universe)
Competitive Local & Regional Partners (verified on November ballot in competitive races)
The following five endorsers are running in competitive November 2026 general elections. Races where Democrats face Republicans will run the largest field programs — the highest coordination value for lit drops.
| Endorser | Race | Geography | Kim Tier | Why It's Competitive | Coordination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | CA-22 D vs. Valadao (R) |
Fresno, Kings, Tulare | Core | Ballotpedia "Marquee" race. Villegas raised $1.75M. Won 2-way primary against incumbent Valadao. Central Valley Dem vs. R incumbent — major field investment guaranteed. | Lit drop — highest value. Kim wins Central Valley Dems at 68%+ two-way. Villegas GOTV turns out exactly Kim's base voters. |
| Clarissa Cervantes | CA AD-58 D vs. Castillo (R) |
Riverside (Jurupa Valley, Rubidoux) | Core Riverside | Ultimate toss-up: 24-vote split in June primary (50.0%/50.0%). In 2024 general, Castillo won by only 596 votes out of 155,988 cast. Both campaigns will run maximum field programs. | Lit drop + phone bank. Riverside County is Kim Core. Cervantes' walk universe and Kim's phone bank universe overlap heavily — ideal for joint drops. |
| Jessie Lopez | CA AD-68 D vs. Penaloza (D) |
Orange County (Santa Ana, Anaheim area) | Competitive Orange | D-vs-D general after close 3-way primary: Lopez 31.4%, Penaloza 32.5%, Republican Ruiz 29.4%. Both Dem candidates will mobilize base heavily to consolidate Republican voters' crossover potential. | Lit drop. Orange County is Kim's most important Competitive-tier county. Lopez's Santa Ana base is dense with Kim's Group A and Group B universe. |
| Mai Vang | CA-7 D vs. Matsui (D) |
Sacramento | Core Sacramento | D-vs-D race against 20-year incumbent. Vang narrowly led in June primary: 30.8% (62,158 votes) to Matsui's 29.1% — an upset-in-progress. Both sides will run serious field programs in Sacramento. | Lit drop. Sacramento is Core for Kim. Vang's progressive infrastructure in Sacramento City overlaps with Kim's base mobilization target areas. |
| Connie Chan | CA-11 D vs. Wiener (D) |
San Francisco | Core San Francisco | High-profile D-vs-D against prominent state senator Scott Wiener. Both advanced from June primary. SF supervisorial networks will generate serious block-by-block organizing from both campaigns. | Lit drop. SF is Kim's strongest county (70%+ two-way). Coordination here is easier than anywhere else — dense progressive infrastructure, overlapping volunteer pools. |
2. Clarissa Cervantes (AD-58) — toss-up rematch, 24-vote primary margin, Riverside
3. Jessie Lopez (AD-68) — Orange County Competitive tier, close D-D primary
4. Mai Vang (CA-7) — Sacramento, upset-in-progress D-D race
5. Connie Chan (CA-11) — SF, strong progressive network, easiest to coordinate