November Turnout Model

November ballot is Kim vs. Allen. Pool A = Kim's primary base (GOTV). Pool B = everyone whose November IC choice is still up for grabs: the 9 other candidates' voters (4.5M statewide whose candidate isn't on the ballot), primary IC undervote, and new November voters who didn't vote in June.

1.31M
Pool A · Kim Base
27.4% of primary IC votes · GOTV target
4.51M
Orphaned IC Voters
Korsgaden + 8 others · candidate not on Nov ballot
—
Pool B · Total Available
orphaned + undervote + new Nov voters
—
Projected Kim Total
Pool A + Kim's share of Pool B
Pool A — GOTV Base
~1.23M
Kim's 1.31M primary IC votes × 94% retention. Allen's primary voters are excluded — not worth the persuasion cost. Focus is on holding this base through GOTV.
Pool B — Acquisition Target
—
50.8 % ≈ 2022 midterm
31.5% Primary 50.8% Midterm '22 58% Optimistic 62% Presidential
88 %
Already engaged with this race. High IC participation expected. Korsgaden voters may undervote rather than choose between two Dems.
80 %
Lower-info voters. Based on 2022 IC vs. Gov undervote rate. Lower in low-turnout counties, higher in areas with strong labor/Dem ground game.
35 %
Primary share was 27.4%. Nov electorate skews more progressive. Range: pessimistic 25% → strong campaign 48%.

County vote upside — Pool A base vs. Pool B acquisition

Gray = Kim's retained primary votes (Pool A). Red = Kim votes won from Pool B. Sorted by Pool B opportunity size. Top 25 counties shown.

County breakdown — known turnout counties

Shows the three components of Pool B per county. Counties with known primary turnout data from the strategy deck.

County Tier Pool A Orphaned IC IC Undervote New Nov IC Voters Kim from B Kim Total