This model illustrates possible paths to a November victory, based on turnout scenarios and vote-share assumptions across four voter groups. It is not an election forecast — while turnout rates and party IC-ballot participation are grounded in historical CA data, the vote-share estimates among voter groups are illustrative assumptions, not predictions. Use the sliders below to stress-test different scenarios.
Models all use real data. Projections and correlations built with AI, so use with caution.
>50% needed to win
KimAllen
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Kim Nov Votes
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Allen Nov Votes
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Total IC Voters
50.8%
Nov Turnout
Voter Groups
Group A
Jane Primary Voters
Voted for Kim in the IC primary. GOTV base — hold via turnout operations.
Primary votes—
Retention—
Kim votes—
Nov. return rate100%
80%100%
Kim retention rate94%
88%98%
Group B
Orphaned Primary Voters
Voted IC for Korsgaden or 8 others. Candidate not on November ballot — forced new choice.
Orphaned voters—
Vote IC in Nov (party-adj)—
Kim votes—
Allen votes—
IC participation rate100% of base
50%100%
Kim vote share45%
25%55%
Group C
Primary IC Undervoters
Voted in June primary but skipped the IC race. Lower engagement with this contest.
Est. undervoters—
Vote IC in Nov—
Kim votes—
Allen votes—
IC participation rate82% of base
50%100%
Kim vote share46%
30%58%
Group D
New November Voters
Did not vote in the June primary. Mobilized by top-of-ticket or GOTV. Lower IC awareness.
In a D vs. D general election, Republicans skip the IC race at higher rates. These rates apply to Groups B, C, D based on their estimated party composition.
Democrats
90%
70%▲ Est. 90%97%
No Party Preference
78%
55%▲ Est. 78%92%
Republicans
52%
25%▲ Est. 52%80%
How IC participation is modeled by party
Party composition uses real Feb 2025 CA SoS registration data per county. In Nov 2022 (D vs. R race), statewide IC participation was 95.1%. In a D vs. D race, Republicans skip at much higher rates — hence the Rep slider defaults to 52%. Group B's mix is weighted toward Republican (Korsgaden's voters ~75% R).
Group
Dem (actual reg)
NPP (actual reg)
Rep (actual reg)
Effective IC rate
How Kim's share of each group is estimated
In a D vs. D race (Kim vs. Allen), Kim's share is the fraction of IC voters — by group — who choose her over Allen. Both candidates are assumed 94% retained from their own primary bases. Group D sizing uses actual Nov 2022 county-level turnout from CA SoS, scaled proportionally to the overall turnout slider.
Group
Default
Reasoning
B Orphaned
45%
Korsgaden's voters (~75% Republican) lean Allen in a D-D race. Other orphaned candidates' voters are more evenly split. Weighted Kim share: ~45%.
C Undervoters
46%
Skipped IC in June — lower engagement signal. Model applies an 82% IC participation discount in November. Split is modeled near 50/50: no clear advantage for either candidate among previously disengaged voters.
D New Nov
46%
Did not vote in June. November electorate skews toward high-turnout progressive counties (SF, Alameda, LA). Kim's grassroots base runs slightly stronger with newly mobilized voters.
County-level Kim vs. Allen projections
Top 15 counties by Kim vote volume. Hover any row for group-by-group breakdowns for both Kim and Allen. Red dashed line = 50% threshold.